The on/off again arctic blasts has made its presence again. The weather pattern is favorable to allow pushes of arctic air to penetrate further South this week (see below).

Fig. 1

Along the leading edge of the last arctic push will be an area of wintry precipitation, with snow on Northern fringes, rain to the South.

The accumulating snow potential is greatest from the Central Plains states through the Lower Ohio and Northern Tennessee Valley region to the Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic, where a few inches of snow is likely late Tuesday night to early Thursday morning.

Expect some mixed precipitation just to the South of this area, with rain further South closer to the Gulf Coast.

Behind this mid-week precipitation will be the last "current" surge of arctic air spilling further South deep into the Interior Southeast states late this week.

With fresh snow cover over Northern areas, minimums are likely to once again fall into the single digits to near zero, with upper teens to lower 20s as far South as Central Alabama and Georgia.

Status of crop dormancy and early bud/bloom stages will vary from North to South, so growers will need to inspect their current crop status to determine the degree of protection needed for this upcoming late week cold event.

While there will be some wind as this next wave of cold air digs South at mid-late week, winds should not be overly extreme for extended times as low pressure causing the precipitation is not expected to intensity to levels causing extreme winds related to recent thunderstorm winds, despite the strength of the arctic high.

After this push of arctic air, expect a turn back to a pattern more typical of La Nina to begin, and perhaps maintain itself for the end of February and beginning of March.

 This return to closer to normal if not above normal temperatures, particularly Southern areas, will push more of the crop out of dormancy, making them more susceptible to later potential freeze events, which would be more typical for this time of year.

 Also, this late February to early March period may prove beneficial with lesser potential rain events to help control disease issues, and give more time to do clean up work, again most likely driest over Southern areas, as a more active storm tract can teeter back and forth with more frequent rain threats over Northern growing areas.

 However, we are entering not only a delicate time of year for crop development and protection needs, it's also a time of highly dynamic weather changes, where forecasts need to be monitored daily for potential changes that could yield high impact decision makings on a local area basis.

 All to say, pay attention to consultants' advice on proper use and timing of crop covers, spray routines for diseases, and other management decisions for your local area.

Karl

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